S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
16.67%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
16.65%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
16.59%
decreased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 194% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 194% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0002 | 0.07 |
| αARCH | 0.0895 | 9.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9868 | 412.35*** |
| γleverage | -0.0441 | -6.31*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 0.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 9.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9868 | 412.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0441 | -6.31*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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