S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
17.32%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
17.28%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
17.15%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 193% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 0.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0898 | 37.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9867 | 1,641.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0442 | -25.21*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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