V-Lab
S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.63%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.59%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
16.44%
decreased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 296% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 18.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0173 | 13.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9452 | 732.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0512 | 16.04*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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