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S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

13.14%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

13.18%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

13.33%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 300% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 300% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0103
4.67***
αARCH0.0171
3.28***
βGARCH0.9454
184.07***
γleverage0.0513
4.04***

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0103
4.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0171
3.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9454
184.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0513
4.04***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days