S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
15.67%
increased by 1.28%
1 Week
15.65%
increased by 1.26%
1 Month
15.57%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 294% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 18.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0174 | 13.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9452 | 731.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0511 | 15.98*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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