V-Lab
S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
15.87%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
15.84%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
15.75%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 294% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 18.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0173 | 13.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9452 | 732.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0510 | 15.99*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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