Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

15.11%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

15.10%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

15.07%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 9.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.8612
2.93***
αscore0.0459
6.43***
βpersistence0.9891
236.45***
νDF9.1229
0.98

0.989

Persistence

63d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.8612
2.93***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0459
6.43***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9891
236.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1229
0.98

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days