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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.07%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

16.04%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

15.94%

decreased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8611
11.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0460
25.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9891
940.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.0689
3.93***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days