V-Lab
S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.03%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.00%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
15.90%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8595 | 11.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 25.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 936.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.0511 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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