S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
53.29%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
53.19%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
52.82%
decreased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3250 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 54.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9959 | 1,437.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.4182 | 8.16*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
170 days
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