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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

39.47%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

39.42%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Month

39.22%

decreased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0488
23.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0688
18.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9196
468.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0048
0.83

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

75 days