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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

49.92%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Week

49.71%

decreased by 2.14%

1 Month

48.92%

decreased by 2.93%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0486
23.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0690
18.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9197
469.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0044
0.77

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days