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V-Lab

CBOT Oats APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

48.12%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

48.19%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Month

48.48%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Oats APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6337 trading days (~25.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.80 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~6337 daysδ = 1.80 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0109
2.83***
αARCH0.0160
2.56**
βGARCH0.9827
251.20***
γleverage-0.4537
-1.83*
δpower1.7999
5.56***

1.000

Persistence

6337d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0109
2.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0160
2.56**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9827
251.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4537
-1.83*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7999
5.56***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

6337 days