CBOT Oats APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
48.12%
1 Week
48.19%
1 Month
48.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6337 trading days (~25.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.80 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0109 | 2.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0160 | 2.56** |
| βGARCH | 0.9827 | 251.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.4537 | -1.83* |
| δpower | 1.7999 | 5.56*** |
1.000
Persistence6337d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0109 | 2.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0160 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9827 | 251.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4537 | -1.83* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7999 | 5.56*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6337 days
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