V-Lab
CBOT Corn APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
30.01%
increased by 1.25%
1 Week
30.13%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
30.58%
increased by 1.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. The volatility power δ = 0.92 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0322 | 15.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 28.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 346.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0302 | 1.54 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9184 | 17.52*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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