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V-Lab

CBOT Corn APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

30.01%

increased by 1.25%

1 Week

30.13%

increased by 1.37%

1 Month

30.58%

increased by 1.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:13 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOT Corn APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. The volatility power δ = 0.92 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0322
15.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0784
28.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9216
346.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0302
1.54
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9184
17.52***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days