ICE US Cotton No. 2 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
29.78%
1 Week
29.89%
1 Month
30.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0260 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0539 | 7.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9461 | 130.35*** |
| γleverage | 0.1471 | 1.86* |
| δpower | 1.1966 | 5.39*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0260 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0539 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 130.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1471 | 1.86* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1966 | 5.39*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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