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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

29.78%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

29.89%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Month

30.32%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysδ = 1.20 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0260
4.05***
αARCH0.0539
7.70***
βGARCH0.9461
130.35***
γleverage0.1471
1.86*
δpower1.1966
5.39***

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0260
4.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0539
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9461
130.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1471
1.86*
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1966
5.39***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days