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ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

36.26%

increased by 3.16%

1 Week

36.18%

increased by 3.08%

1 Month

35.87%

increased by 2.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0389
4.10***
αARCH0.0356
5.05***
βGARCH0.9411
134.87***
γleverage0.0270
1.59

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0389
4.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0356
5.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9411
134.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0270
1.59

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days