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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

26.14%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

26.25%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Month

26.68%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0389
16.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0356
20.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9410
534.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0271
6.38***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days