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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

32.36%

increased by 2.68%

1 Week

32.35%

increased by 2.67%

1 Month

32.30%

increased by 2.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0388
16.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0358
20.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9409
534.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0271
6.36***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days