V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
26.14%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
26.25%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
26.68%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0389 | 16.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0356 | 20.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9410 | 534.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0271 | 6.38*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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