ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
36.26%
increased by 3.16%
1 Week
36.18%
increased by 3.08%
1 Month
35.87%
increased by 2.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0389 | 4.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0356 | 5.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9411 | 134.87*** |
| γleverage | 0.0270 | 1.59 |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0389 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0356 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9411 | 134.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0270 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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