V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
24.44%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
24.60%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
25.18%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0390 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 5.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9410 | 133.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0272 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
Other ICE US Cotton No. 2 Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities