ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
32.36%
increased by 2.68%
1 Week
32.35%
increased by 2.67%
1 Month
32.30%
increased by 2.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 76% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0388 | 16.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0358 | 20.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9409 | 534.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0271 | 6.36*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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