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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

30.73%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Week

30.74%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

30.80%

decreased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0389
4.11***
αARCH0.0358
5.05***
βGARCH0.9412
134.38***
γleverage0.0264
1.56

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0389
4.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0358
5.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9412
134.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0264
1.56

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days