Skip to main content
V-Lab

NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

60.30%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Week

59.53%

decreased by 3.54%

1 Month

56.86%

decreased by 6.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 4, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2304
6.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0983
7.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8752
60.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0125
-2.00**
γ20.0283
3.07***
γ3-0.0224
-4.40***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days