NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
61.16%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Week
60.87%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Month
59.78%
decreased by 3.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 4, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0744 | 20.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 18.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8960 | 315.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0027 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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