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V-Lab

NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

61.16%

decreased by 2.42%

1 Week

60.87%

decreased by 2.71%

1 Month

59.78%

decreased by 3.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 4, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0744
20.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0929
18.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8960
315.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0027
0.34

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days