NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
49.29%
1 Week
49.26%
1 Month
49.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 4, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 8.1852 | 1.19 |
| αscore | 0.0656 | 12.33*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9958 | 296.62*** |
| νDF | 7.6202 | 1.68* |
0.996
Persistence163d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 8.1852 | 1.19 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0656 | 12.33*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 296.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6202 | 1.68* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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