V-Lab
NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
54.23%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
54.15%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
53.86%
decreased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 4, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 155 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.0258 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0666 | 48.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 1,109.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6284 | 6.60*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
155 days
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