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NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

49.29%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Week

49.26%

decreased by 1.14%

1 Month

49.13%

decreased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 4, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~163 daysv = 7.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run8.1852
1.19
αscore0.0656
12.33***
βpersistence0.9958
296.62***
νDF7.6202
1.68*

0.996

Persistence

163d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

8.1852
1.19
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0656
12.33***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9958
296.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6202
1.68*

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

163 days