NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
51.03%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
51.05%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
51.40%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 4, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.1091 | 4.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8196 | 37.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.0048 | 0.20 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0212 | 1.26 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0296 | 2.42** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9668 | 67.50*** |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1091 | 4.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8196 | 37.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0048 | 0.20 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0212 | 1.26 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0296 | 2.42** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9668 | 67.50*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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