BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
45.22%
increased by 1.77%
1 Week
66.68%
increased by 23.23%
1 Month
103.41%
increased by 59.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8247 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7976 | 27.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1336 | 5.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0520 | 2.58*** |
| γ2 | -0.0714 | -2.27** |
| γ3 | 0.0750 | 3.31*** |
| γ4 | -0.0947 | -5.12*** |
| γ5 | 0.0379 | 2.51** |
| γ6 | 0.0130 | 0.92 |
| γ7 | -0.0281 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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