V-Lab
BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
79.11%
decreased by 4.86%
1 Week
86.10%
increased by 2.13%
1 Month
101.71%
increased by 17.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7754 | 5.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.7944 | 27.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1327 | 5.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0432 | 2.33** |
| γ2 | -0.0557 | -1.90* |
| γ3 | 0.0637 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -0.0972 | -4.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.0595 | 3.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.0163 | -1.13 |
| γ7 | -0.0060 | -0.60 |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7754 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7944 | 27.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1327 | 5.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0432 | 2.33** |
| γ2 | -0.0557 | -1.90* |
| γ3 | 0.0637 | 2.82*** |
| γ4 | -0.0972 | -4.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.0595 | 3.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.0163 | -1.13 |
| γ7 | -0.0060 | -0.60 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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