Skip to main content
V-Lab

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

45.22%

increased by 1.77%

1 Week

66.68%

increased by 23.23%

1 Month

103.41%

increased by 59.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8247
5.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7976
27.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1336
5.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0520
2.58***
γ2-0.0714
-2.27**
γ30.0750
3.31***
γ4-0.0947
-5.12***
γ50.0379
2.51**
γ60.0130
0.92
γ7-0.0281
-2.83***

Persistence:

0.931

Half-life:

10 days