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BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

35.96%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

56.00%

increased by 19.30%

1 Month

94.44%

increased by 57.74%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0614
3.62***
αARCH0.8257
29.57***
βGARCH0.1365
5.63***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0435
2.30**
γ2-0.0567
-1.89*
γ30.0651
2.83***
γ4-0.0988
-4.97***
γ50.0621
3.71***
γ6-0.0204
-1.38
γ7-0.0024
-0.24

0.962

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0614
3.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8257
29.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1365
5.63***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0435
2.30**
γ2-0.0567
-1.89*
γ30.0651
2.83***
γ4-0.0988
-4.97***
γ50.0621
3.71***
γ6-0.0204
-1.38
γ7-0.0024
-0.24

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days