BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
35.96%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
56.00%
increased by 19.30%
1 Month
94.44%
increased by 57.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0614 | 3.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.8257 | 29.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1365 | 5.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0435 | 2.30** |
| γ2 | -0.0567 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.0651 | 2.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.0988 | -4.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.0621 | 3.71*** |
| γ6 | -0.0204 | -1.38 |
| γ7 | -0.0024 | -0.24 |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0614 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8257 | 29.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1365 | 5.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0435 | 2.30** |
| γ2 | -0.0567 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 0.0651 | 2.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.0988 | -4.97*** |
| γ5 | 0.0621 | 3.71*** |
| γ6 | -0.0204 | -1.38 |
| γ7 | -0.0024 | -0.24 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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