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V-Lab

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

35.84%

decreased by 4.08%

1 Week

55.51%

increased by 15.59%

1 Month

87.63%

increased by 47.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7701
5.19***
αARCH0.7948
27.33***
βGARCH0.1335
5.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0414
2.23**
γ2-0.0533
-1.82*
γ30.0627
2.78***
γ4-0.0967
-4.96***
γ50.0597
3.67***
γ6-0.0171
-1.18
γ7-0.0054
-0.53

0.928

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7701
5.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7948
27.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1335
5.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0414
2.23**
γ2-0.0533
-1.82*
γ30.0627
2.78***
γ4-0.0967
-4.96***
γ50.0597
3.67***
γ6-0.0171
-1.18
γ7-0.0054
-0.53

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days