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BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

79.11%

decreased by 4.86%

1 Week

86.10%

increased by 2.13%

1 Month

101.71%

increased by 17.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7754
5.26***
αARCH0.7944
27.24***
βGARCH0.1327
5.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0432
2.33**
γ2-0.0557
-1.90*
γ30.0637
2.82***
γ4-0.0972
-4.99***
γ50.0595
3.66***
γ6-0.0163
-1.13
γ7-0.0060
-0.60

0.927

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7754
5.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7944
27.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1327
5.28***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0432
2.33**
γ2-0.0557
-1.90*
γ30.0637
2.82***
γ4-0.0972
-4.99***
γ50.0595
3.66***
γ6-0.0163
-1.13
γ7-0.0060
-0.60

Persistence:

0.927

Half-life:

9 days