V-Lab
BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
35.84%
decreased by 4.08%
1 Week
55.51%
increased by 15.59%
1 Month
87.63%
increased by 47.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7701 | 5.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.7948 | 27.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1335 | 5.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0414 | 2.23** |
| γ2 | -0.0533 | -1.82* |
| γ3 | 0.0627 | 2.78*** |
| γ4 | -0.0967 | -4.96*** |
| γ5 | 0.0597 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.0171 | -1.18 |
| γ7 | -0.0054 | -0.53 |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7701 | 5.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7948 | 27.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1335 | 5.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0414 | 2.23** |
| γ2 | -0.0533 | -1.82* |
| γ3 | 0.0627 | 2.78*** |
| γ4 | -0.0967 | -4.96*** |
| γ5 | 0.0597 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.0171 | -1.18 |
| γ7 | -0.0054 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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