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V-Lab

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

32.17%

increased by 3.04%

1 Week

42.39%

increased by 13.26%

1 Month

66.53%

increased by 37.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7798
106.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0760
13.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0341
-3.76***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0269
6.82***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
81.14***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.01

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days