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V-Lab

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

24.90%

increased by 0.30%

1 Week

38.62%

increased by 14.02%

1 Month

64.65%

increased by 40.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.7767
22.02***
βGARCH0.0714
3.50***
γleverage-0.0407
-0.99
λ₁tau intercept0.0244
1.28
λ₂forecast adj.1.0000
40.39***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.828

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7767
22.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0714
3.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0407
-0.99
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0244
1.28
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
40.39***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days