V-Lab
BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
23.72%
decreased by 4.54%
1 Week
37.61%
increased by 9.35%
1 Month
64.18%
increased by 35.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.7769 | 22.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0718 | 3.51*** |
| γleverage | -0.0404 | -0.98 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0245 | 1.28 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 40.29*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.828
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7769 | 22.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0718 | 3.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0404 | -0.98 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0245 | 1.28 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 40.29*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
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