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V-Lab

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

31.80%

decreased by 3.58%

1 Week

32.06%

decreased by 3.32%

1 Month

33.10%

decreased by 2.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0337
33.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3216
36.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6831
135.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0094
-1.18

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-