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COMEX Copper MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

23.39%

increased by 0.51%

1 Week

23.75%

increased by 0.87%

1 Month

24.15%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Copper MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 85% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 85% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0572
3.04***
βGARCH0.7501
16.57***
γleverage0.0487
2.05**
λ₁tau intercept0.0111
2.03**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0299
2.71***
λ₃tau persistence0.9666
83.65***

0.832

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0572
3.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7501
16.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0487
2.05**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0111
2.03**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0299
2.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9666
83.65***

Persistence:

0.832

Half-life:

4 days