V-Lab
S&P GSCI Silver Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
39.42%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
39.36%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
39.09%
decreased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 30.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9517 | 663.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5012 | -13.06*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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