V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
17.84%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
17.80%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
17.62%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0299 | 9.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0463 | 8.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9438 | 148.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.33 |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0299 | 9.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0463 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9438 | 148.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
Other S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities