S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.38%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
15.38%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
15.37%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0293 | 9.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0461 | 8.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9439 | 148.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.35 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0293 | 9.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9439 | 148.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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