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S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

17.84%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

17.80%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

17.62%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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graph of S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0299
9.32***
αARCH0.0463
8.06***
βGARCH0.9438
148.33***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.33

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0299
9.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0463
8.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9438
148.33***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.33

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days