S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.40%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
16.38%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
16.30%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0276 | 9.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.0459 | 8.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9443 | 149.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.33 |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0276 | 9.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0459 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9443 | 149.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
Other S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities