V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.69%
increased by 0.83%
1 Week
16.66%
increased by 0.80%
1 Month
16.56%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0305 | 9.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0462 | 8.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9439 | 147.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0305 | 9.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 8.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9439 | 147.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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