V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
36.67%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Week
36.80%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Month
37.27%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1448 | 6.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0789 | 6.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9020 | 70.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0067 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0163 | 2.00** |
| γ3 | -0.0139 | -3.14*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1448 | 6.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9020 | 70.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0067 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0163 | 2.00** |
| γ3 | -0.0139 | -3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
Other S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities