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S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

28.87%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

29.17%

decreased by 0.99%

1 Month

30.28%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 83% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 83% more than positive returnsδ = 1.48 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0532
4.33***
αARCH0.0851
6.40***
βGARCH0.9120
72.99***
γleverage0.2016
2.17**
δpower1.4763
8.10***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0532
4.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0851
6.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9120
72.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2016
2.17**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4763
8.10***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days