V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
34.17%
1 Week
34.31%
1 Month
34.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 84% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0537 | 4.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.0858 | 6.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9114 | 72.43*** |
| γleverage | 0.2038 | 2.19** |
| δpower | 1.4705 | 8.07*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0537 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9114 | 72.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2038 | 2.19** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4705 | 8.07*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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