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S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

34.17%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Week

34.31%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

34.83%

decreased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 84% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.47 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 84% more than positive returnsδ = 1.47 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0537
4.34***
αARCH0.0858
6.40***
βGARCH0.9114
72.43***
γleverage0.2038
2.19**
δpower1.4705
8.07***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0537
4.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
6.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9114
72.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2038
2.19**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4705
8.07***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days