V-Lab
CBOT Rough Rice APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.79%
1 Week
26.01%
1 Month
26.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Sep 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. The volatility power δ = 1.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0523 | 3.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0950 | 6.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8995 | 59.28*** |
| γleverage | 0.0289 | 0.36 |
| δpower | 1.5034 | 5.59*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0523 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 6.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8995 | 59.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0289 | 0.36 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5034 | 5.59*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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