CBOT Rough Rice APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
19.79%
1 Week
20.28%
1 Month
21.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. The volatility power δ = 1.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0524 | 3.15*** |
| αARCH | 0.0950 | 6.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8993 | 59.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.0333 | 0.41 |
| δpower | 1.5037 | 5.60*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0524 | 3.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8993 | 59.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0333 | 0.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5037 | 5.60*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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