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CBOT Rough Rice APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

19.79%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Week

20.28%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

21.95%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. The volatility power δ = 1.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifeδ = 1.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0524
3.15***
αARCH0.0950
6.63***
βGARCH0.8993
59.21***
γleverage0.0333
0.41
δpower1.5037
5.60***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0524
3.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
6.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8993
59.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0333
0.41
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5037
5.60***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days