Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOT Rough Rice APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.79%

increased by 2.82%

1 Week

26.01%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

26.77%

increased by 3.80%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Rough Rice APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 1999 to Sep 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. The volatility power δ = 1.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifeδ = 1.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0523
3.15***
αARCH0.0950
6.62***
βGARCH0.8995
59.28***
γleverage0.0289
0.36
δpower1.5034
5.59***

0.981

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0523
3.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
6.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8995
59.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0289
0.36
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5034
5.59***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days