CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
40.80%
1 Week
40.77%
1 Month
40.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.1584 | 0.97 |
| αscore | 0.0322 | 10.64*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9926 | 132.58*** |
| νDF | 2.4864 | 14.79*** |
0.993
Persistence93d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.1584 | 0.97 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0322 | 10.64*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 132.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4864 | 14.79*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
Other CME Lean Hogs Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities