Skip to main content
V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

25.69%

increased by 0.97%

1 Week

25.69%

increased by 0.97%

1 Month

25.69%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5560
3.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0255
19.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
526.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4311
103.32***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days