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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.23%

increased by 1.42%

1 Week

23.23%

increased by 1.42%

1 Month

23.24%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3882
14.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0258
75.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,899.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4465
351.10***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days