V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
24.81%
increased by 0.77%
1 Week
24.81%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
24.81%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4314 | 14.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0256 | 76.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,936.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4387 | 365.08*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
Other CME Lean Hogs Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities