CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.23%
increased by 1.42%
1 Week
23.23%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
23.24%
increased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3882 | 14.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0258 | 75.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,899.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4465 | 351.10*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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