V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.87%
1 Week
28.87%
1 Month
28.85%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7051 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0256 | 19.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 595.35*** |
| νDF | 2.4331 | 121.08*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7051 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0256 | 19.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 595.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4331 | 121.08*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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