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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

30.08%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

30.08%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

30.05%

increased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7415
3.77***
αARCH0.0256
19.07***
βGARCH0.9990
624.77***
νDF2.4393
127.25***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7415
3.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0256
19.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
624.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4393
127.25***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days