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CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

40.80%

increased by 0.78%

1 Week

40.77%

increased by 0.75%

1 Month

40.66%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 daysv = 2.49 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.1584
0.97
αscore0.0322
10.64***
βpersistence0.9926
132.58***
νDF2.4864
14.79***

0.993

Persistence

93d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.1584
0.97
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0322
10.64***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9926
132.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4864
14.79***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days