V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
25.69%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
25.69%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
25.69%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5560 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0255 | 19.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 526.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4311 | 103.32*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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