CME Lean Hogs GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
30.08%
1 Week
30.08%
1 Month
30.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7415 | 3.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0256 | 19.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 624.77*** |
| νDF | 2.4393 | 127.25*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7415 | 3.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0256 | 19.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 624.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4393 | 127.25*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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