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NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

43.23%

increased by 0.66%

1 Week

43.12%

increased by 0.55%

1 Month

42.72%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 5.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.0315
1.39
αscore0.0702
7.99***
βpersistence0.9864
103.79***
νDF5.1415
2.21**

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.0315
1.39
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0702
7.99***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9864
103.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1415
2.21**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days