V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
47.50%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Week
47.29%
decreased by 3.07%
1 Month
46.50%
decreased by 3.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9907 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0706 | 31.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9863 | 402.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0528 | 9.10*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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