NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
43.23%
increased by 0.66%
1 Week
43.12%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
42.72%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 06:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 5.14 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.0315 | 1.39 |
| αscore | 0.0702 | 7.99*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9864 | 103.79*** |
| νDF | 5.1415 | 2.21** |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.0315 | 1.39 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0702 | 7.99*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 103.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1415 | 2.21** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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