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NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

40.32%

increased by 6.26%

1 Week

40.28%

increased by 6.22%

1 Month

40.13%

increased by 6.07%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9755
1.36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0699
7.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
100.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0231
2.28**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days