Skip to main content
V-Lab

NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

38.49%

decreased by 2.39%

1 Week

38.50%

decreased by 2.38%

1 Month

38.52%

decreased by 2.36%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9643
5.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0704
31.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9862
399.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0316
9.11***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days