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NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

45.03%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

44.88%

decreased by 1.56%

1 Month

44.30%

decreased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NYMEX Palladium GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9848
5.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0708
31.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9862
399.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0396
9.11***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days