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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Soybeans Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.20%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

17.35%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

17.89%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Soybeans Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 40% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0774
39.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9157
424.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0220
-8.88***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0016
12.04***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0031
9.00***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9960
2,388.58***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days