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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

38.17%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

38.13%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Month

37.98%

decreased by 1.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 32% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0583
21.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0577
16.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9221
439.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0183
3.46***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days