V-Lab
S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
38.17%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
38.13%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
37.98%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 32% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0583 | 21.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 16.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 439.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0183 | 3.46*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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