V-Lab
S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.89%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
37.87%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
37.78%
decreased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0591 | 23.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0682 | 32.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9208 | 438.26*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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