V-Lab
S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.81%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
15.84%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
16.01%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0658 | 8.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9195 | 105.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.0138 | -1.61 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0014 | 0.99 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0104 | 1.69* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9885 | 141.03*** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 8.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9195 | 105.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0138 | -1.61 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0014 | 0.99 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0104 | 1.69* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9885 | 141.03*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
Other S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities