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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

15.81%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

15.84%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

16.01%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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graph of S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0658
8.84***
βGARCH0.9195
105.80***
γleverage-0.0138
-1.61
λ₁tau intercept0.0014
0.99
λ₂forecast adj.0.0104
1.69*
λ₃tau persistence0.9885
141.03***

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
8.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9195
105.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0138
-1.61
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0014
0.99
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0104
1.69*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9885
141.03***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days