V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
48.43%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Week
48.12%
decreased by 3.26%
1 Month
47.07%
decreased by 4.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.79) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0867 | 14.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0989 | 33.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8788 | 318.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7897 | 20.26*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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