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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

48.43%

decreased by 2.95%

1 Week

48.12%

decreased by 3.26%

1 Month

47.07%

decreased by 4.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.79) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0867
14.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0989
33.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8788
318.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7897
20.26***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days