NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
44.29%
decreased by 2.21%
1 Week
44.30%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
44.51%
decreased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 122% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0587 | 13.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8701 | 185.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0716 | 11.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0301 | 9.00*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0230 | 6.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9719 | 218.70*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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