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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

45.59%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Week

45.49%

decreased by 2.34%

1 Month

45.32%

decreased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0598
13.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8688
184.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0712
11.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0305
9.01***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0227
6.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9721
221.59***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days