NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
45.59%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Week
45.49%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Month
45.32%
decreased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 13.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8688 | 184.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0712 | 11.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0305 | 9.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0227 | 6.04*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9721 | 221.59*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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