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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

44.29%

decreased by 2.21%

1 Week

44.30%

decreased by 2.20%

1 Month

44.51%

decreased by 1.99%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 122% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0587
13.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8701
185.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0716
11.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0301
9.00***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0230
6.03***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9719
218.70***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days