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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

46.83%

decreased by 2.48%

1 Week

46.70%

decreased by 2.61%

1 Month

46.20%

decreased by 3.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.5707
8.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0771
41.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9881
636.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3133
5.23***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days