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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

52.67%

decreased by 2.39%

1 Week

52.44%

decreased by 2.62%

1 Month

51.58%

decreased by 3.48%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.7064
7.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0766
41.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9887
650.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2784
5.29***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days