NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.83%
decreased by 2.48%
1 Week
46.70%
decreased by 2.61%
1 Month
46.20%
decreased by 3.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5707 | 8.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0771 | 41.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 636.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3133 | 5.23*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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