V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
52.67%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Week
52.44%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Month
51.58%
decreased by 3.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7064 | 7.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0766 | 41.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9887 | 650.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2784 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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