V-Lab
NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
63.00%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
62.60%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Month
61.09%
decreased by 3.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.7457 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0766 | 41.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9888 | 654.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2644 | 5.31*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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