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V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

63.00%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

62.60%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Month

61.09%

decreased by 3.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.7457
7.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0766
41.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9888
654.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.2644
5.31***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days