V-Lab
ICE US Sugar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
32.07%
increased by 1.41%
1 Week
32.09%
increased by 1.43%
1 Month
32.14%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3984 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 213.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4054 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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