ICE US Sugar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
27.20%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
27.27%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
27.54%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3785 | 4.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 30.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 856.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4040 | 4.51*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
Other ICE US Sugar Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities