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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

27.20%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

27.27%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

27.54%

decreased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

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graph of ICE US Sugar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3785
4.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0292
30.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9947
856.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4040
4.51***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

130 days