V-Lab
ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
44.97%
increased by 18.94%
1 Week
41.29%
increased by 15.26%
1 Month
36.12%
increased by 10.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0818 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7344 | 17.05*** |
| γleverage | -0.0037 | -0.18 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6286 | 3.30*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8485 | 12.45*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.814
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7344 | 17.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0037 | -0.18 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6286 | 3.30*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8485 | 12.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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