V-Lab
ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
34.08%
increased by 2.67%
1 Week
32.48%
increased by 1.07%
1 Month
30.40%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0813 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7334 | 16.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.11 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6299 | 3.30*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8487 | 12.42*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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