V-Lab
ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.70%
increased by 2.57%
1 Week
27.70%
increased by 2.57%
1 Month
27.78%
increased by 2.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 17.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7380 | 69.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0015 | -0.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6178 | 3.24*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8500 | 11.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.817
Half-life:
3 days
Other ICE US Sugar Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities