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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

25.28%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

26.41%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

27.54%

increased by 1.62%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0798
17.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7381
69.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0014
-0.27
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6244
3.20***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8492
11.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.817

Half-life:

3 days