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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

44.97%

increased by 18.94%

1 Week

41.29%

increased by 15.26%

1 Month

36.12%

increased by 10.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0818
4.50***
βGARCH0.7344
17.05***
γleverage-0.0037
-0.18
λ₁tau intercept0.6286
3.30***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8485
12.45***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.814

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0818
4.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7344
17.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0037
-0.18
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6286
3.30***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8485
12.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days