V-Lab
ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
29.86%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Week
29.46%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Month
29.39%
decreased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0814 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7342 | 17.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.0026 | -0.13 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6305 | 3.30*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8488 | 12.41*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.814
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0814 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7342 | 17.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0026 | -0.13 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6305 | 3.30*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8488 | 12.41*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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