Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

30.85%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

31.62%

increased by 1.85%

1 Month

33.16%

increased by 3.39%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0815
4.44***
βGARCH0.7249
16.00***
γleverage-0.0033
-0.16
λ₁tau intercept0.6453
3.36***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8469
12.06***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.805

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0815
4.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7249
16.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0033
-0.16
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6453
3.36***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8469
12.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.805

Half-life:

3 days