ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
25.28%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
26.41%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
27.54%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 17.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7381 | 69.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0014 | -0.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6244 | 3.20*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8492 | 11.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.817
Half-life:
3 days
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