Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

29.86%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

29.46%

decreased by 2.17%

1 Month

29.39%

decreased by 2.24%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0814
4.47***
βGARCH0.7342
17.01***
γleverage-0.0026
-0.13
λ₁tau intercept0.6305
3.30***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8488
12.41***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.814

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0814
4.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7342
17.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0026
-0.13
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6305
3.30***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8488
12.41***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days