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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

27.70%

increased by 2.57%

1 Week

27.70%

increased by 2.57%

1 Month

27.78%

increased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0801
17.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7380
69.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0015
-0.28
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6178
3.24***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8500
11.53***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.817

Half-life:

3 days