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V-Lab

Av-Gad Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, July 26th, 2026

1 Day

35.94%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

37.66%

increased by 1.51%

1 Month

37.47%

increased by 1.32%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Av-Gad Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 18, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 129% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1121
3.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5272
10.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0632
-2.38**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.4348
0.05
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4678
0.05
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.608

Half-life:

1 days