Deutsche Bank AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
36.69%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
36.65%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Month
36.80%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 113% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0428 | 18.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8840 | 126.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0483 | 13.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0091 | 4.65*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0245 | 3.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9736 | 124.70*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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