V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
30.97%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
31.51%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
33.11%
increased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 113% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 18.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8842 | 126.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0480 | 13.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0091 | 4.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0244 | 3.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9737 | 125.20*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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