Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
34.73%
increased by 0.91%
1 Week
34.76%
increased by 0.94%
1 Month
34.88%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 180 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 79% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0229 | 9.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0358 | 14.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9463 | 705.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0281 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
180 days
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