Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
36.00%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
36.02%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
36.11%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 181 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 78% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0229 | 9.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0359 | 14.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9463 | 705.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0280 | 6.30*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
181 days
Other Deutsche Bank AG Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on International Equities