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Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

33.74%

increased by 1.09%

1 Week

33.77%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

33.92%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 175 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~175 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0230
2.50**
αARCH0.0355
3.54***
βGARCH0.9464
176.96***
γleverage0.0282
1.59

0.996

Persistence

175d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0230
2.50**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0355
3.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9464
176.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0282
1.59

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

175 days