V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
23.95%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
24.09%
increased by 1.03%
1 Month
24.65%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0231 | 2.49** |
| αARCH | 0.0357 | 3.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9461 | 176.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0284 | 1.59 |
0.996
Persistence173d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0357 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 176.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0284 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
173 days
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