Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
33.74%
increased by 1.09%
1 Week
33.77%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
33.92%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 175 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~175 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0230 | 2.50** |
| αARCH | 0.0355 | 3.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9464 | 176.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0282 | 1.59 |
0.996
Persistence175d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0230 | 2.50** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 3.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9464 | 176.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0282 | 1.59 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
175 days
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