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Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

23.95%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

24.09%

increased by 1.03%

1 Month

24.65%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 173 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~173 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0231
2.49**
αARCH0.0357
3.54***
βGARCH0.9461
176.09***
γleverage0.0284
1.59

0.996

Persistence

173d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0231
2.49**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0357
3.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9461
176.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0284
1.59

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

173 days