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V-Lab

Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

36.00%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

36.02%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

36.11%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 181 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 78% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0229
9.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0359
14.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9463
705.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0280
6.30***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

181 days