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V-Lab

Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

34.73%

increased by 0.91%

1 Week

34.76%

increased by 0.94%

1 Month

34.88%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Bank AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 180 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 79% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0229
9.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0358
14.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9463
705.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0281
6.31***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

180 days