V-Lab
Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
17.58%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
18.98%
increased by 0.87%
1 Month
23.54%
increased by 5.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1116 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.1543 | 3.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8524 | 33.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.0291 | -0.57 |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1116 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1543 | 3.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8524 | 33.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0291 | -0.57 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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