Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
21.07%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
22.20%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
26.04%
increased by 4.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1118 | 3.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1534 | 3.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8526 | 34.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.0282 | -0.56 |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1118 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1534 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8526 | 34.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0282 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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