V-Lab
Han Kook Capital Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
36.15%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Week
36.63%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Month
38.43%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 26, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 24% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1108 | 14.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1533 | 15.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8537 | 136.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0293 | -2.31** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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