Han Kook Capital Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
29.68%
increased by 8.08%
1 Week
31.08%
increased by 9.48%
1 Month
35.91%
increased by 14.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1976 | 4.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.3611 | 9.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6662 | 26.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.0701 | -1.26 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1976 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3611 | 9.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6662 | 26.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0701 | -1.26 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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