Han Kook Capital Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
29.58%
1 Week
27.90%
1 Month
24.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0983 | 4.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.3231 | 12.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6526 | 20.52*** |
| γleverage | -0.0674 | -1.89* |
| δpower | 0.6137 | 3.24*** |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0983 | 4.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3231 | 12.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6526 | 20.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0674 | -1.89* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6137 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
Other Han Kook Capital Co Ltd Analyses
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on International Equities