DHL AG Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.33%
1 Week
20.18%
1 Month
17.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 15% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.52 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0604 | 6.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1810 | 14.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7848 | 53.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1348 | 4.12*** |
| δpower | 0.5172 | 2.90*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0604 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1810 | 14.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7848 | 53.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1348 | 4.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5172 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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