V-Lab
DHL Group MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.55%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
20.81%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
21.68%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 224% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0250 | 9.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 290.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0560 | 15.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.7239 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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