V-Lab
DHL AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.01%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
20.71%
increased by 0.99%
1 Month
21.82%
increased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 303% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 303% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0288 | 1.85* |
| βGARCH | 0.8400 | 31.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.0874 | 5.68*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0635 | 1.24 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0648 | 1.47 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9110 | 14.65*** |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0288 | 1.85* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8400 | 31.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0874 | 5.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0635 | 1.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0648 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9110 | 14.65*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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