V-Lab
DHL Group MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.51%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
25.16%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
26.64%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 309% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0299 | 7.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8238 | 67.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0924 | 18.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0289 | 2.51** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0313 | 2.40** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9579 | 56.74*** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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