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V-Lab

DHL Group APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.06%

increased by 0.75%

1 Week

24.30%

increased by 0.99%

1 Month

25.12%

increased by 1.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of DHL Group APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 193% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.02 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0396
21.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0650
24.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9271
358.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4825
15.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0223
23.23***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days