DHL Group APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.06%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
24.30%
increased by 0.99%
1 Month
25.12%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 193% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.02 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0396 | 21.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 24.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 358.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4825 | 15.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0223 | 23.23*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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