V-Lab
Nissui Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
29.44%
1 Week
30.16%
1 Month
32.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 61% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0881 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.1037 | 8.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8895 | 64.59*** |
| γleverage | 0.1876 | 2.41** |
| δpower | 1.2536 | 8.52*** |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0881 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 8.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8895 | 64.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1876 | 2.41** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2536 | 8.52*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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