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Henkel AG & Co KGaA APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

20.49%

increased by 0.12%

1 Week

20.69%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

21.41%

increased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henkel AG & Co KGaA APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 126% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 126% more than positive returnsδ = 0.94 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0194
4.64***
αARCH0.0473
3.85***
βGARCH0.9517
88.64***
γleverage0.4085
3.75***
δpower0.9377
4.07***

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0194
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0473
3.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9517
88.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4085
3.75***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9377
4.07***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days