V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
20.49%
1 Week
20.69%
1 Month
21.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 126% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.94 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0194 | 4.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0473 | 3.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9517 | 88.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.4085 | 3.75*** |
| δpower | 0.9377 | 4.07*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0473 | 3.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9517 | 88.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4085 | 3.75*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9377 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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