V-Lab
Mercedes-Benz Group AG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
23.87%
1 Week
24.21%
1 Month
25.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 148% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0460 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0680 | 8.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9252 | 100.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.3268 | 4.08*** |
| δpower | 1.3401 | 5.68*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0460 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0680 | 8.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9252 | 100.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3268 | 4.08*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3401 | 5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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