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Mercedes-Benz Group AG APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

23.87%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

24.21%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

25.42%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercedes-Benz Group AG APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 26, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 148% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 148% more than positive returnsδ = 1.34 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0460
3.59***
αARCH0.0680
8.51***
βGARCH0.9252
100.24***
γleverage0.3268
4.08***
δpower1.3401
5.68***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0460
3.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0680
8.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9252
100.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3268
4.08***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3401
5.68***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days