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V-Lab

Mercedes-Benz Group AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

22.19%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

22.38%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

23.04%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mercedes-Benz Group AG SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 26, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2746
6.24***
αARCH0.0729
8.12***
βGARCH0.9067
84.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0387
2.49**
γ2-0.0698
-3.01***
γ30.0633
4.01***
γ4-0.0686
-2.78***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2746
6.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0729
8.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9067
84.23***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0387
2.49**
γ2-0.0698
-3.01***
γ30.0633
4.01***
γ4-0.0686
-2.78***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days