Inpex Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.87%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
29.74%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Month
29.33%
decreased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9119 | 7.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0955 | 5.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8754 | 43.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0290 | -2.52** |
| γ2 | 0.0560 | 2.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.0670 | -2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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