Inpex Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
28.86%
increased by 2.82%
1 Week
28.77%
increased by 2.73%
1 Month
28.46%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9210 | 7.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.0937 | 5.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8783 | 45.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0272 | -2.40** |
| γ2 | 0.0529 | 2.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.0648 | -2.71*** |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9210 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0937 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8783 | 45.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0272 | -2.40** |
| γ2 | 0.0529 | 2.83*** |
| γ3 | -0.0648 | -2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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