LANXESS AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
46.48%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
47.70%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
51.13%
increased by 3.67%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2005 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7037 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8806 | 41.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0363 | -3.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.0577 | 3.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.0185 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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