V-Lab
Deutsche Telekom AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
31.24%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
32.54%
increased by 1.10%
1 Month
35.70%
increased by 4.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 1996 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8141 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 6.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 41.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0553 | -0.87 |
| γ2 | -0.0956 | -1.07 |
| γ3 | 0.3450 | 6.34*** |
| γ4 | -0.3056 | -5.74*** |
| γ5 | 0.1851 | 2.96*** |
| γ6 | -0.1721 | -2.56** |
| γ7 | 0.2170 | 3.48*** |
| γ8 | -0.2358 | -3.84*** |
| γ9 | 0.3548 | 4.06*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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