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V-Lab

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

29.11%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

29.52%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

31.00%

increased by 1.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0419
5.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0604
8.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9302
124.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0015
1.67*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days