V-Lab
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
29.11%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
29.52%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
31.00%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0419 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0604 | 8.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9302 | 124.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0015 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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